Predicting future Bitcoin prices

Bitcoin, the world’s first and most valuable digital asset, has reached an all-time high twice in 2021, toppling 68,000 USD in November before beginning to slide down from its peak as the end of the year draws by. 

Data science as well as the history of economics tell us that market prediction is a troubling endeavor: Wall Street strategists and other forecasters are often staggeringly wrong about their predictions. In researcher Philip Tetlock’s famous words, experts are “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

Bitcoin’s infamous volatility makes it twice as hard to predict how the asset will move at any given time, but speculation has always been at the heart of Bitcoin, nor will it stop anytime soon, at least until the market completely matures. But expert opinions on Bitcoin prices in the future are still important: while they may not all be correct, they represent different assumptions about how Bitcoin and crypto markets operate in the world. So, let’s have a look at what experts think Bitcoin will be worth in the near and far future.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2022

Bitcoin price was around 30,000 USD in January 2021 and increased to 66,000 USD per BTC by April. Prominent crypto analysts predicted that Bitcoin would reach 100,000 USD before the end of the year but the price of Bitcoin remains around 50,000 USD as the final days of the year draw nearer.

In 2019, Morgan Creek Digital Assets co-founder Anthony Pompliano had predicted the asset might reach 100,000 USD by the end of 2021. In 2021, he revisited his statement, claiming that Bitcoin could hit as high as $225,000 by the end of 2021. Pompliano pointed out that trouble in Wall Street could incentivize people to invest in cryptocurrencies, as more institutional investors are investing in Bitcoin and creating a demand that would be reflected in its prices.

According to pseudonymous PlanB, the creator of the famous Stock-to-Flow model that tracks Bitcoin prices on the basis of supply and demand dynamics, Bitcoin will also reach 100,000 USD by the end of 2021. The American stock exchange NASDAQ shares the same opinion.

Others have made more modest predictions or even modified their predictions when it seemed like Bitcoin may not quickly recover from its slump after November highs. According to a 50 people research panel organized by Finder, the average forecast claims that Bitcoin would hit as high as 80,000 USD during the year, sliding to 70,000 USD towards the end of December.

Similarly, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell retracted his prediction that Bitcoin could reach 100,000 USD by the end of 2021 and suggested the Bitcoin community should be ready for a long “crypto winter.”

Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz predicted Bitcoin would be worth around $50,000 to $60,000 by December 2021. This seems like the most successful prediction for the end of 2021 but of course, Bitcoin prices can still unexpectedly jump up or down before the year’s end.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025

It is not easy to guess what Bitcoin will be worth in a few years. As you have seen, it is often difficult to guess how Bitcoin prices will move, even for a couple of months or days. But the analysts think Bitcoin prices will actually be easier to guess as the crypto asset gains more maturity with increased institutional and public adoption.

Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 are generally optimistic. According to Finder’s panel of 50 Bitcoin experts, Bitcoin prices will increase dramatically within a few years and reach 250,000 USD by 2025. That means the price of Bitcoin could quadruple within the next four years.

Experts think Bitcoin has the potential to become a store of value. At the moment, Bitcoin (and other altcoins) most closely resemble stocks: bought and sold off in a frenzy and very speculative. But in time, Bitcoin could ease its volatility to become a long-term value storage asset.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030

Most of the crypto community holds positive expectations for 2030 but some of them are more modest. The famous Winklevoss Twins, co-founders of cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has long claimed that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2030. Winklevoss twins think Bitcoin can replace gold as a store of value and their predictions are based on the value of gold held in storage. Gold has a market cap of 9 trillion USD and Winklevoss twins expect Bitcoin to take over gold’s market share, increasing its price to half a million dollars by the end of 2030.

According to the experts on the Finder panel, Bitcoin prices can reach 5 million USD by 2030. That’s right, the average prediction of 50 crypto experts is that a single BTC will be worth 5 million USD by 2030.

PlanB’s stock-to-flow model predicts Bitcoin prices will reach 1 million USD by 2030 and increase up to 10 million USD until the end of the decade. That said, we should note that 2021 prices are currently below what PlanB’s model has predicted and whether the reality will catch up to the model remains a question for now.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2040 and Beyond

According to venture capitalist Jeremy Liew, Bitcoin will reach 500,000 USD by 2030. Anthony Pompliano suggested Bitcoin could be worth at least double that amount and the price of a single BTC could hit 1 million USD in 2030. His Morgan Creek co-founder Mark Yusko has a more conservative prediction, suggesting Bitcoin can be worth 400,000 USD in the long term. Mark Yusko also bases his claim on Bitcoin’s possibility to topple gold as the main store of value.

Finally, according to J.P. Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin will hit  $146,000 in the future, as the asset receives more institutional adoption by banks and other financial organizations. Panigirtzoglou differs from others because he thinks Bitcoin is likely to replace “private gold.” So, he thinks Bitcoin won’t take over the whole gold market but only a portion of it that is held in private portfolios, worth around 2.7 trillion USD.

A Few Words Before You Go…

When Bitcoin launched over a decade ago, the price of a single BTC was less than pennies. But the digital asset grew immensely in the following decade, even though it wasn’t always steady in its movement upwards. Bitcoin is a speculative asset: it doesn’t have intrinsic value or a base price. It’s simply worth what people think it’s worth. That makes Bitcoin price predictions notoriously difficult, as experts are essentially trying to gauge public sentiment. As you can see, many have differing opinions on how much Bitcoin will be worth in a year, in five years, or in one or two decades. But the one thing they all agree on is that Bitcoin has enormous growth potential.

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